Democracy for New Mexico

(Updated) 8/27: Congressional Forum Hosted by Women Impacting Public Policy and ACI in Albuquerque

Update: I have been informed that Rep. Ben Ray Lujan never agreed to appear at this forum and has been trying to get his name removed from publicity about the event to no avail so far. Rep. Harry Teague will also not be participating and others listed may not be attending.
****************
From Women Impacting Public Policy (WIPP):

Women Impacting Public Policy and the Association of Commerce and Industry (ACI) invite you to attend a New Mexico Congressional Forum.

Friday, August 27, 2010
11:00 AM-2:00 PM (Call to order: 11:30 AM)
Marriott Pyramid North
5151 San Francisco Road, NE, Albuquerque, NM

• Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-1st) & Jon Barela, (R-1st)
• Rep. Harry Teague (D-2nd) invited & Former Rep. Steve Pearce, (R-2nd)
• Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D-3rd) & Tom Mullins, (R-3rd)
• Gubernatorial Candidates Susana Martinez (R) & Diane Denish (D) invited

Moderator: Terry Neese, President, IEEW and WIPP Cofounder. Registration rate: $35 per person or $350 for a reserved table for 10. Online registration is available until 8/27/2010. For additional information, please contact Kay Carrico, kay@expertsinexports.com.

RSVP Now: Fiesta 8/21 to Celebrate Rep. Martin Heinrich's Westside Campaign Office

From Campaign to Re-Elect Rep. Martin Heinrich:

YOU ARE INVITED
to a
WESTSIDE FIESTA

Congressman Martin Heinrich is inviting you to help open his WESTSIDE Campaign Office. In true New Mexican fashion we will have HOMEMADE COMIDA Y MUSICA.

Saturday, August 21, 3:00 PM-5:00 PM
3805 Atrisco Drive NW, Albuquerque (map)
(West on St. Joseph's Drive from Coors Blvd.
Just South of the Presbyterian Health Clinic)

To RSVP or if you'd like to volunteer or contribute food/supplies for the event please contact Terri Zuniga at 881-0222 or Terri.zuniga@martinheinrich.com.

Note: We need to make sure Rep. Heinrich keeps representing us in New Mexico's First Congressional District! Please consider signing up to volunteer for his campaign. Just click on Rep. Heinrich's "Join Us" image on the upper right-hand side of this page.

Photos & Videos: Rep. Martin Heinrich Opens 2010 Campaign HQ in Albuquerque

Click for larger version or photo album

Yesterday, Congressman Martin Heinrich hosted supporters at the grand opening of his campaign headquarters, located in Suite A at 2610 San Mateo NE in Albuquerque (map). More than 200 folks showed up on a rainy afternoon to celebrate the event, down some BBQ provided the IBEW, sample other goodies and sign up to volunteer for Rep. Heinrich's re-election campaign. Originally set to be an outdoorevent, folks had to pack into both floors of the two-story office space when a monsoon rain swept in, complete with thunder, lightening and, eventually, a rainbow.

Rep. Heinrich, who was introduced by super volunteer Ramon Mondragon, State Senator Tim Keller and DPBC Vice Chair Victor Raigoza, ended up having to give two different speeches -- one to the crowd packed into the upstairs space and another to the crowd downstairs, outside the office, when the rain finally stopped. Two for the price of one!

Also on hand as speakers and/or supporters were Attorney General Gary King, State Auditor Hector Balderas, PRC Commissioner Jason Marks, Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales, Sandia Pueblo Lt. Gov. Scott Paisano, AFSCME's Carter Bundy, DPNM Executive Director Scott Forrester, DPBC Chair Ana Canales, Sandoval County Dems Chair David Montoya, Young Democrats' Sisto Abeyta, OFA's Cisco Padilla, the wonderful guys from Roma Bakery, a passel of Deaniacs of yore and many more.

Rep. Heinrich speaks to upstairs crowd

GOP Wants Return to Bush Agenda
Rep. Heinrich talked about how Republicans have said out loud that they want to take back the House so they can return to pushing for the "exact same agenda" they had when Bush was in the Oval Office. In order to do that, the GOP needs to win back Rep. Heinrich's seat in NM-01, as well as Rep. Harry Teague's seat in NM-02, so they'll be pouring money into New Mexico to do just that.

The Republicans will be trying to privatize Social Security, voucherize Medicare and turn back the clock on everything the Democratic-dominated Congress has achieved over the past two years. We can't let them do that but, in order to win, we'll have to make sure Democrats get out and vote in droves -- including all the young Dems and first-time voters who turned out in such great numbers in 2008 to vote for President Obama.

GOTV: If Democrats Vote, Democrats Win
How do we do that? By getting involved NOW and volunteering as much time as we can to call voters, walk precincts and get the word out about what's really at stake on November 2nd. There are less than 90 days left until the general election -- and fewer than 60 days left until early and absentee voting begins. Every minute counts from now until election day. Volunteer and convince your friends, colleagues, neighbors and family members to do the same. As Rep. Heinrich said, "If Democrats show up, Democrats will win."

Rep. Heinrich speaks to outside crowd

Not a Normal Election Year
Congessman Heinrich also talked about how, in a normal election year, he and other Democrats would be talking about the many accomplishments of the last two years -- mentioning how Democrats took on entrenched interests to pass the Lily Ledbetter Act, credit card reform, health care reform (something that had been worked on for literally 100 years) and Wall Street reform. This year, however, is not a normal year.

"There are too many people out there who are still hurting and still trying to recover from this economy that we were left with at the end of the Bush administration.... We are still working day and night to pull out of that recession and, until everyone who wants to find a job in the state of New Mexico can go out and find that job, we are not going to run on our accomplishments but on what there is more to do," Rep. Heinrich said,

The GOP's Cynical Bet
Rep. Heinrich also explained how the Reublicans made a "cynical bet" to dedicate themselves to making sure that Democrats fail to get anything done so they can win at the ballot box. They are bent on beating Democrats, and don't care what "collateral damage" happens to the nation or America's families in the process. We can expect much worse if the GOP regains the House and Rep. John Boehner becomes Speaker -- he has said he wants to repeal health care reform and the Wall Street reform bill, just for starters. Not on our watch!

Sen. Tim Keller, Ramon Mondragon talk about Rep. Heinrich

Are you on board?
To sign up for or donate to Team Heinrich, visit Martin's campaign website. Do it now. Convince others to do the same. We can't let the Republicans drag us back to the days of the damaging Bush agenda. It's all on the line this year ...

Would New Mexico's GOP Congressional Candidates Join the Tea Party Caucus?

With each passing week, it's gotten more difficult to tell where the right-wing extremist Tea Party ends and the Republican Party begins. To all extents and purposes, they've become one and the same, as the video above explains. GOP candidates and officeholders now form the backbone of the Tea Party, and vice versa. The platform of the Tea Party has become the platform of the GOP.

The Republican Tea Party agenda -- or as it's being called these days, the Contract on America -- now appears to be the blueprint for how Republicans would govern should they regain a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The Tea Party is now the most potent force in Republican politics -- as was made clear with the recent launch of the Tea Party Caucus on Capitol Hill, which garnered the support of Republican leaders like National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Pete Sessions and Republican Caucus Chair Mike Pence.

If Republicans win back the House, they'll be intent on repealing health insurance reform, privatizing Social Security or phasing it out altogether, ending Medicare as we know it, extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy and big oil, repealing Wall Street reform, abolishing the Department of Education and the EPA and repealing the 17th amendment that provides for direct election of Senators. And that's just for starters.

Barela, Pearce, Mullins: Tea Party Caucus Wannabes?
What about the Republicans running for Congress in New Mexico? If elected, will Jon Barela, Tom Mullins and Congressman Steve Pearce join the Congressional Tea Party Caucus? It's telling that they’ve been spending many precious campaign hours courting Tea Party groups around New Mexico. If elected, will the three Republican candidates embrace the founding principles of the Tea Party and join the extremist caucus in the U.S. House?

“It’s a simple question,” said DPNM spokesman, James Hallinan, in a written statement. “Pearce, Mullins and Barela have spent countless hours at Tea Party events, so they should know by now whether or not they support the Tea Party in principle. And it’s time for them to come clean." 

"Would they or wouldn’t they join the Congressional Tea Party Caucus?” Hallinan asked.

Bad Company
Officially formed in the U.S. House of Representatives last week, the Tea Party Caucus is the brainchild of Minnesota Congresswoman, Michele Bachmann. Bachmann, a right-wing extremist, is well known as a national Tea Party activist and is joined in the Congressional Tea Party Caucus by the likes of Congressman Joe Wilson (R-SC), who yelled out “You Lie!” during President Obama’s joint address to Congress in September 2009, Paul Broun (R-GA) who was one of the first people to compare Obama with Hitler after the 2008 election, and Joe Barton (R-TX) who felt so sorry for BP that he apologized to them for the mess they created.

Is this he kind of radical representation our state can expect if the GOP candidates for the U.S. House in New Mexico this year are successful? It sure looks like it -- and what a nightmare that would be.

For instance, an article on The Huffington Post reports

House Tea Party Caucus leader Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R-Minn.) and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) agree: If Republicans win back control the House in November, they'll embark on an agenda of issuing subpoenas, repealing legislation, and holding hearings to investigate the Obama administration.

"I think all we should do is issue subpoenas and have one hearing after another and expose all the nonsense that has gone on," Bachmann said Thursday at the GOP Youth Convention in Washington.

With so many pressing problems needing the attention of Congress, we can't afford to let Republicans win back the House and spend the next two years focused on political shenanigans, juvenile publicity stunts and attempts to reverse all the progress we've made since 2008. You know what to do:

• www.martinheinrich.com/
• www.benrlujan.com/

8/5: Grand Opening Celebration at Rep. Martin Heinrich's Campaign Office

From Martin Heinrich for Congress:
Can you believe it? With less than 100 days until central New Mexico decides its future at the polls, we'd like to invite you to join us at the opening of our new campaign headquarters.

Come on down and join Rep. Martin Heinrich at our new office. Let's celebrate all that we've accomplished together and the good work that is to come this campaign season.

• Who: All Constituents and Supporters
• When: Thursday, August 5, from 5:30 to 7:30 PM
• Where: Our new Campaign Headquarters at 2610 San Mateo NE, Suite A in Albuquerque (MAP)

We will have light refreshments and entertainment. To RSVP please email alex.eubanks@martinheinrich.com. or call the campaign at 505-881-0222.

Dueling Polls in NM-01 Congressional Race: Heinrich Leads by Double Digits (Or Trails Barela by 6)

I'm not a big fan of polling, unlike many bloggers and reporters -- especially those with a love for baseball stats. Writing about polling results doesn't take any knowledge or research about complicated issues or even the candidates and their positions. It's an easy story to do, and you can come up with a headline that can draw readers and up your hit count -- which sadly seems to be the main goal of too many blogs and news outfits these days, in my opinion.

I'm not an expert on polling, but I do know that results can be skewed by factors like how questions are asked, the demographics of those surveyed and how they're weighted. I especially distrust polling that asks questions like, "Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama's leadership?" Um, what aspect of his leadership? On which issues? How is "leadership" defined? So much polling relies on simplistic either-or answers to questions that in actuality tap into complicated and nuanced opinions. Not much room for a variety of shades of gray in polling results. Respondents are forced into being either for 'em or agin 'em -- whether it's candidates or positions on issues.

Two Polls With Very Different Results
Some of the problems with polling reliability are demonstrated by two recent polls about the NM-01 Congressional race between incumbent Democrat Rep. Martin Heinrich and GOP challenger Jon Barela. One, funded by KOB-TV News and conducted by SurveyUSA, says Barela is ahead -- which is shocking given previous polling results. The other, funded by Heinrich's campaign and conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, shows Heinrich with a healthy lead, in line with earlier surveys of voters. Which one can we believe? Or are they both off? Why would the two polls vary so widely in measuring who's ahead?

In general, early polling results aren't very accurate anyway in predicting how elections will go. A lot can happen in just a few months or even weeks or days as election day approaches. Early on, ordinary voters often aren't paying attention to campaigns, or the issues that will define the races. That comes later. So, suffice it to say that early polling data is little more than a blurry snapshot of a moment early in the process. That said, here's what the dueling polls found.

Greenberg Poll: Heinrich Leads by 12%
In the Greenberg poll of 505 likely voters, Rep. Heinrich leads Jon Barela by a double-digit margin of 53-41%. The survey, taken earlier this month, relies solely on voters judged highly likely to vote in November, according to the polling firm. A memo from Greenberg reporting on the results says:

Heinrich’s support is especially broad; he leads Barela among Anglo and Hispanic voters, among both men and women, as well as with younger and older voters. In addition, 52 percent of all likely voters in the 1st District approve of the job Heinrich is doing as their representative. This includes a majority of both Anglo and Hispanic voters.

The polling was conducted by "professional dialers on July 8-13, 2010 and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval."

Moreover, Greenberg's memo points out that the results of its latest polling in NM-01 is in line with previous results:

Heinrich’s advantage in this race continues a trend we have seen throughout the year. In February, PPP released a survey showing Heinrich with a 9-point, 45 – 36 percent advantage. And in April, our GQR survey had Heinrich ahead 55 – 38 percent.

Sounds reasonable to me.

SurveyUSA: Barela Leads by 6%
But what about the results of the SurveyUSA poll paid for by KOB that has Jon Barela leading Rep. Heinrich by 51% to 45%, with only 4% of the voters undecided. Can it really be that under 5% of voters are undecided this early in the election cycle? And how could two polls taken in the same month show an 18% difference in results between the two candidates?

The data was collected from 07/22/2010 - 07/25/2010 by automated random dialing. It includes data from 559 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. SurveyUSA describes its methodology here. It uses the "voice of a professional announcer" instead of "professional dialers" as Greenberg does.

KOB reports that:

Survey USA shows Barela leading in all age groups, but Heinrich with a slight lead among women voters, with 50% to Barela’s 47%. Barela is running much stronger among male voters, 56% to Heinrich’s 39%.

Hispanic voters tend to favor the Anglo candidate, Heinrich, by 54% to Barela’s 41%. But Barela, a Hispanic, turns the tables by running well ahead of Heinrich among Anglo voters, 55% to 41%.

Identifying Likely Voters
SurveyUSA's selection of "likely voters" is different than Greenberg's. SurveyUSA says,

Filtering: 800 registered voters from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 07/22/10 through 07/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 559 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election for US House of Representatives.

Greenberg describes its process for determining "likely voters" this way:

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner determines likely voters based on vote history from the voter file when available, self-reported vote history when vote history is not available and stated intention to vote in 2010. Likelihood of voting for each combination of these variables is estimated based on an analysis of data from the last like election in 2006 and only those voters with a high probability of voting are included in the sample.

Meaning?
So what does it all mean? Not a whole helluva lot, except that nobody can take any election for granted in this election cycle. The voting public appears to be volatile. Many are still suffering the ongoing effects of the Bush/Republican financial, taxation and deregulation policies that have destabilized local, state, national and even global economies. They're looking for someone to blame and they're being steered into blaming incumbents by the GOP frame and all the media outlets that use it to echo Republican talking points.

Dems are countering by communicating about the realities of what a GOP return to power in state houses and in Congress would really mean. Do voters really want to reinstall representatives of the very failed policies that got us here in the first place? Do they really want people in office who are tied into promoting the views of the crazy-making Tea Party "movement" with all its racial, ethnic and extremist baggage?

I don't think so, but it's clear that Dems will have to do a top-notch job of getting both the facts and their voters out this election cycle if they plan to hold onto power in the mid-terms. And that means we have to help -- knocking on doors, making phone calls, donating dollars and talking to friends, neighbors, colleagues and family members.

Volunteer Now
We can't let a generalized, floating type of anger within the electorate be focused by the right-wing noise machine on Democrats -- who are hard at work fixing the problems -- instead of on those who created this mess -- right-wing Republicans. Please do your part in NM-01, starting now. We can't let all our hard-fought victories become moot in a Congress where corporatists and right wingers are trying to obstruct almost every single piece of legislation that can help make things better. Rest assured, the GOP and their cronies want to retake Congress and turn the clock back to the good ol' Bush days. We can't let that happen.

7/26: Martin Heinrich for Congress Summer Volunteer Kickoff

From the Martin Heinrich for Congress Campaign:
You're invited to attend the Martin Heinrich for Congress Summer Volunteer Kick Off on Monday, July 26, 2010 at 6:30 PM at the campaign office located at 2610 San Mateo NE, Suite A, in Albuquerque (map). Get involved now to help re-elect Rep. Heinrich so he can keep advocating on behalf of the folks in New Mexico's First Congressional District.

Click to join Congressman Heinrich's campaign or to donate to his re-election campaign.

GOP's Jon Barela, Steve Pearce, Tom Mullins: Anti-Working Families?

Yesterday President Obama signed the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that will make Wall Street banks accountable, end taxpayer funded “too big to fail” bailouts, and create a consumer financial protection agency that will help put Americans, and New Mexicans, back in control of their finances and their future.

Although there was much rejoicing by those who believe Americans shouldn't be at the mercy of Ponzi schemes and worse caused by severely inadequate regulation and oversight of the financial industry, many right-wing Republicans were aghast. How dare the Democrats seek to protect consumers, borrowers, investors and retirees from abuse? How dare the Democrats enact legislation to make it much harder for Wall Street and the financial services mega-corporations to bamboozle their way into another meltdown of the economy accompanied by massive job losses, foreclosures and the financial ruin of innocent parties?

GOP: Anti-Working Families
After failing to kill the bill, House Republican leader John Boehner and other Washington Republicans immediately started calling for the new law to be repealed. In the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression, Americans have lost 8 million jobs and $17 trillion in retirement savings and net worth, yet Washington Republicans are still putting partisan politics before the financial security of New Mexicans and working families everywhere.

Eddie Vale, a spokesperson for the AFL-CIO, had this response: "First Boehner wants to take away working families health care benefits. Now he also wants to return Wall Street and the big banks back to the power they had when they destroyed our economy. It could be no clearer for working families in 2010 that there is a clear choice between continuing to move forward to make the economy work for everyone again or go backwards to the Bush years where corporations and Wall Street ran wild."

What About Barela, Pearce and Mullins?
The question is, will the GOP's candidates for Congress in New Mexico follow suit and support the call for repeal? Will Jon Barela, Steve Pearce and Tom Mullins continue to embrace the extremist and obstructionist policies of their GOP leaders in Washington? Will they join with Boehner and others and continue to take the side of the errant corporate interests against the very citizens members of Congress are supposed to represent? Apparently.

Barela, Pearce Mullins: Fat cats come first

"Wall Street reform protects consumers and stops big banks and corporations from taking advantage of the system at our expense," said DPNM Executive Director Scott Forrester in a written statement. "The Republican policy of 'too big to fail'-- the policy that the 1st District Congressional candidate Jon Barela supports -- is something that New Mexicans cannot afford."

"When Steve Pearce was a member of Congress, he looked the other way while Wall Street and big banks gambled with the welfare of the American people. Washington Republicans and Congressman Pearce would rather protect their friends and special interests than look out for New Mexicans. Maybe that's why he has been silent on this issue," said James Hallinan, DPNM spokesman. "But New Mexicans want to know where Congressman Steve Pearce stands. Does he stand with Republican leader Boehner, big special interests and Washington insiders in calling for the repeal of this bill, or will he stand up for New Mexicans and help protect their financial security?"

Hallinan added, "We also continue to see how out of touch Tom Mullins is with New Mexicans by putting forward a proposal to landmine the border, making offensive remarks following a tribal ceremony and siding with credit card companies over New Mexicans who are being hurt by arbitrary rate increases and unfair terms. New Mexicans deserve to know where Tom Mullins stands on Wall Street reform. Does Mr. Mullins stand with New Mexicans who are sick of being hurt by Wall Street's irresponsibility or does he want to protect the very same big Wall Street banks who helped cause an economic collapse?"

DPNM Chairman Javier Gonzales also weighed in with a statement: "Republicans have made it clear -- they’re going to stand up for big banks and other powerful special interests no matter what the cost to middle-class Americans. If they have the opportunity, they’ll repeal all the progress enacted by President Obama and return to the failed policies of the Bush era -- the same policies that led to the financial crisis in the first place. That’s why this year it is so important that people here in New Mexico, and all across America, support candidates who will fight for working families and stand with the President to overcome Republican obstructionism."

Rep. Martin Heinrich Posts Another Strong Fundraising Quarter, Has $1.3M On Hand

Rep. Martin Heinrich (Dem, NM-01) reported $1,301,624.47 in the bank and $270,552.56 raised between May 13 and June 30, 2010, in his latest report to the Federal Elections Commission. When combined with the pre-primary report, which covered April 1 to May 12, the freshman congressman reported $376,372 in receipts in the second quarter of 2010.

Some facts about the report are as follows (all of these statistics are for the time period of April 1 to June 30, 2010):

• Cash On Hand: $1,301,624.47

• Average Contribution: $293.63

• Average Individual Contribution: $201.23

• Percentage of contributions from Individuals: 92

• Percentage of contributions from New Mexicans: 82

• Percentage of contributions $100 and below: 66

The full report can be read online by visiting www.fec.gov.

7/8: Business in NM Fundraiser for Rep. Martin Heinrich's Campaign with Sen. Jeff Bingaman

From Heinrich for Congress:

Please join Troy Lapsys, Jacob Berman,
Mark Benak and Matt Rembe for a

Business in New Mexico Fundraiser
for Congressman Martin Heinrich

With New Mexico Senator Jeff Bingaman

Thursday, July 8th, 6:30 PM to 8:30 PM
Los Poblanos Inn
4803 Rio Grande NW, Los Ranchos de Albuquerque (map)

Suggested Contribution:
Individual - $100; Friend - $500
Sponsor - $1000; Benefactor - $1500-$2400

Hors D’oeuvres & Refreshments provided
To RSVP, please call Jeff Gordon at (505) 242-4416
or email jeffrey.gordon@martinheinrich.com

Please bring contributions to the event,
or go online to ActBlue to RSVP and contribute

7/7: House Party Fundraiser for Rep. Martin Heinrich Campaign Hosted by Cadigans

From Traci and Michael Cadigan:

Please join us for a house party fundraiser honoring
United States Representative
Martin Heinrich
Wednesday July 7, 2010, 6:00 PM
At the home of Traci and Michael Cadigan
2705 Bosque del Sol NW, Albuquerque, NM 87120
Suggested Contributions:
Host: $250, Friend: $125, Individual: $50
Refreshments and Snacks provided
Kids welcome:
the swimming pool will be open and lifeguarded
From Coors and Paseo del Norte, go south on Coors to Eagle Ranch. Turn left (east) on Eagle Ranch. Turn left (east) on Bosque del Rio. Turn left on Casa del Rio, which will turn into Bosque del Sol. 2705 is on the left in a half-cul-de-sac.
Please RSVP to: tcadigan@q.com
Click for Flyer (pdf)

Rep. Martin Heinrich Has Double-Digit Lead Over GOP's Barela in Latest Polling

Believe the punditry and predictions of Beltway blah blahs like Stuart Rothenberg and Charlie Cook at your peril. Recently, they've been touting the merits and strength of the campaign of Republican challenger Jon Barela in the NM-01 race against first-term incumbent Rep. Martin Heinrich. What is their analysis based on? You tell me. 

My guess is that they like to pretend that certain races are more competitive than they are because they want to jack up interest, especially in their own scribblings. More hits, more links, more interviews. You know the scam. We see it everywhere, even here.

Anyway, Cook and Rothenberg recently decided that they'd switch their ratings on the NM-01 race from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat." Like scribes, many political writers wrote about the tea leave changes as if the duo was in possession of some magical power to ascertain and understand the political climate and candidates in New Mexico all the way from Washington. Not hardly.

Turns out the latest polling by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner on this race has Rep. Martin Heinrich, the Dem incumbent with a double-digit lead over Barela, 55% to 38%. Even more telling, the survey has Heinrich with the support of 68% of the Hispanics polled versus 24% for Barela. Among Anglos, Heinrich leads 48-44%. According to the pollsters, Heinrich has "widespread support" and "a commanding lead" in the race.

The polling memo said Heinrich's support is "especially broad; he leads Barela among both men and women, younger and older voters, and in neighborhoods across the district."

The polling of 500 "likely general election voters" during the period April 28 to May 2 shows Heinrich's job approval at 55%. Not bad in a race that pundits claim is only "leaning Democrat."

What does all this mean? The race looks much less competitive than the DC handicappers are claiming, but that doesn't mean we can sit back and cruise. It's true that Barela has only $392K in the bank so far, while Heinrich has more than $1 million. That means it will be an uphill battle for the Republican challenger to catch the incumbent in fundraising. But Rep. Heinrich needs to continue raising money at a healthy clip, and he needs as many grassroots, on-the-ground volunteers as he can muster.

The GOP is definitely targeting this race and will no doubt direct a lot of resources to NM-01, especially is they see Heinrich's fundraising slowing. Just today, the National Republican Congressional Committee named Barela to their "Young Guns" program, which means he'll be getting fundraising and infrastructure support from DC.

Turnout, as always, will be the big decider. Democrats need to come out in droves in November or face a return to the daze of Heather Wilson and her ilk. We can't have that. Get involved.