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Monday, August 30, 2010

Journal Poll: Heinrich Beating Barela 47% to 41% in NM-01

According to a new poll conducted by Research and Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal, Democratic incumbent candidate Rep. Martin Heinrich holds a 6-point lead over his GOP opponent Jon Barela -- 47% to 41% -- with 12% of those polled still undecided. The telephone survey of 402 likely voters, conducted August 23-27, 2010, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points, according to the Journal. The margin of error for the subsets increases according to the Journal, but we don't know by how much.

Additional data released by the Journal:

Anglos for Heinrich 42%
Anglos for Barela 46%

Hispanics for Heinrich 54%
Hispanics for Barela 33%

Party Lines
Democrats for Heinrich 75%
Democrats for Barela 12%

Republicans for Heinrich 11%
Republicans for Barela 83%

Independents for Heinrich 45%
Independents for Barela 31%

Among Hispanic Democrats
Hispanic Democrats for Heinrich 70%
Hispanic Democrats for Barela 14%

Age Groups
Aged 18-34 for Heinrich 56%
Aged 18-34 for Barela 36%

Aged 65 and Over for Heinrich 40%
Aged 65 and Over for Barela 46%

As always, the Journal, which holds a financial interest in Brian Sanderoff's polling company, did not release full cross-tab data when reporting on the results. Unlike the purchasers of most serious political polls and most respected polling firms themselves, the Journal continues to pick and choose which data it makes available to the public, and which it keeps hidden.

Previous Polls
In leaked results of a poll supposedly conducted on behalf of an unnamed statewide candidate in mid-August, Barela was alleged ahead by a couple points.

In an automated telephone poll by SurveyUSA conducted on behalf of KOB-TV on July 22-25, 2010, Barela was leading Heinrich by 6 points, or a margin of 51% to 45% with only 4% of respondents undecided.

In a poll conducted for the Heinrich campaign by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research around the same time as the SurveyUSA survey, Heinrich held a 12-point lead over Barela, 53% to 41%.

These early polling results are preliminary snapshots of the NM-01 race taken before most ordinary voters are paying attention. Traditionally, races kick into higher gear after Labor Day weekend when political TV ads start proliferating the candidates start campaigning in earnest. In the NM-01 race, Rep. Heinrich started running his first TV ad last week, early by the standards of the past and indicative that Rep. Heinrich has the money to do so. Barela has not yet aired any TV ads.

August 30, 2010 at 10:15 AM in Jon Barela, NM-01 Congressional Seat 2010, Polling, Rep. Martin Heinrich (NM-01) | Permalink