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Monday, October 04, 2010

Latest NM-01 Journal Poll: Heinrich 48%, Barela 41%

In Albuquerque Journal poll results released today on the race in New Mexico's first congressional district, Democratic incumbent Rep. Martin Heinrich was backed by 48% of those surveyed, versus 41% who backed the GOP candidate, Jon Barela. The phone interview survey of 403 likely voters conducted by Research & Polling Inc. in NM-01 on Sept. 27-30 found 11% were still undecided. Unlike with yesterday's release of results in a poll on the New Mexico governor's race, the Journal did not publish numbers including "leaners" in this race. We can only surmise the reason why. The main poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points.

The Journal noted "solid support among Democratic and independent voters," with Heinrich backed by 51% of independents versus only 38% of independents for Barela in the poll. A total of 76% of Democratic voters polled said they would vote for Heinrich, while 12% said they would support Barela. Among Republican voters surveyed, 83% said they would vote for Barela and 9% backed Heinrich. In addition, the Journal reported,

Heinrich received more support in the Journal Poll from both male [46-44%] and female voters [50-39%] than did Barela, and younger voters were significantly more likely to support Heinrich.

Voters between the ages of 18 and 34 were nearly twice as likely to support Heinrich than Barela, with 59 percent of those voters surveyed saying they would vote for Heinrich compared with 31 percent for Barela. However, Barela matched Heinrich's support among voters age 65 and older.

Fifty-one percent of Anglo voters surveyed for the Journal Poll favored Barela, while 41 percent of Anglo voters supported Heinrich. Meanwhile, 60 percent of Hispanic voters supported Heinrich compared with 22 percent of Hispanic voters for Barela.

Similar to Last Poll: The results were similar to those of a Journal poll from late August, which showed Heinrich at 47% support to Barela's 41%, with 12% undecided.

Turnout, Turnout, Turnout: As with virtually all the major races this year, turnout will be key:

The Journal also said that,"With Democrats making up 48 percent of all registered voters in the 1st District, and Republicans 32 percent, Heinrich would have an advantage in a high turnout election," but that low turnout could hurt him. Pollster Brian Sanderoff said, ""The higher the turnout, the better it is for Heinrich. The lower the turnout, the better it is for Barela."

I'll say it again: we can win, IF we vote, get everyone we know to vote and work to get our voters out to the polls. In this mid-term election year, whether or not we can turn out Democratic voters and supportive independents will determine the outcome of this race and many others.

If you haven't already done so, now is the time to get involved by volunteering for a campaign, the Democratic Party or Organizing for America. Even a few hours a week can make all the difference in whether we keep moving forward or fall back to the Republican-created mess in coming years.

October 4, 2010 at 09:57 AM in Jon Barela, NM-01 Congressional Race 2010, Polling, Rep. Martin Heinrich (NM-01) | Permalink