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Sunday, November 02, 2008

Clean Sweep in the Making? Albuquerque Journal Poll Has Obama, Udall, Heinrich, Teague, Lujan Leading

Following on the heels of the last SurveyUSA poll that has Obama leading McCain 52-45% (58-39% with early voters), and Tom Udall ahead of Steve Pearce 56% to 42% (61-35% with early voters), the final polls of this election cycle conducted by Research and Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journat show Democrats ahead in the Presidential contest and all the Congressional races. Unfortunately, the Journal polling has small samples and a high margin of error in the U.S. House races, at plus or minus 5%. The surveys interviewed about 400 voters in NM-01 and NM-02, and only 201 in NM-03.

The Presidential and U.S. Senate sampling is somewhat better, with an MOE at plus or minus 3%, based on phone interviews with 1,002 registered voters statewide. 

As usual, the Journal has failed to release the full cross-tabs, so we're operating somewhat in the dark here. Weighting methodology? Not revealed. Breakdown of respondents who've already voted vs. those who say they will? Not revealed. You get the picture. But the results nonetheless provide an interesting snapshot of New Mexico's registered voters who said they had voted or will vote during the period October 28-30, 2008, and the trends are all tilting Democratic:

Presidential
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 43%
Undecided 5%
Other 1%

Women:
Obama 52%
McCain 42%

Men:
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

Hispanics:
Obama 66%
McCain 25%
Undecided 7%

Anglos:
Obama 43%
McCain 52%

Ages Groups:
18-34: Obama 56%, McCain 38%
35-49: Obama 43%, McCain 49%
50-64: Obama 57%, McCain 38%
65+: Obama 50%, McCain 45%

Geographic:
Central (ABQ Metro): Obama 58%, McCain 36%
North Central: Obama 70%, McCain 30%
Northwest: Obama 26%, McCain 69%
Southwest: Obama 48%, McCain 41%
Eastern: Obama 34%, McCain 58%

Independents (Decline to State):
Obama 49%
McCain 34%
Undecided 11%

Democrats:
Obama 83%

Republicans:
McCain 88%

According to the Journal:

"There is not a lot of cross-over voting going on, and, for the Republicans to win, they typically need to get around 20 percent of the Democratic vote and slightly more independents," Sanderoff said. "McCain hasn't picked up as many Democrats as he needs and Obama is ahead on independents. "People are pretty much voting along party lines, but the independents are moving toward Obama," Sanderoff said.

U.S. Senate
Tom Udall (D) 53%
Steve Pearce (R) 39%
Undecided 8%

NM-01 U.S. House
Martin Heinrich (D) 47%
Darren White (R) 43%
Undecided 10%

NM-02 U.S. House
Harry Teague (D) 45%
Ed Tinsley (R) 41%
Undecided 14%

NM-03 U.S. House
Ben Ray Lujan (D) 51%
Dan East (R) 23%
Carol Miller (I) 12%
Undecided 14%

November 2, 2008 at 10:38 AM in 2008 General Presidential Election, 2008 NM Senate Race, NM-01 Congressional Race 2008, NM-02 Congressional Race 2008, NM-03 Congressional Race 2008, Polling | Permalink

Comments

An all Democratic Washington delegation, sure has a nice ring to it.

Posted by: VP | Nov 2, 2008 5:38:37 PM

IF our ground game is the best ever and IF we all vote and get everyone we know to vote, we can do this. Yes We Can!

Posted by: JJ | Nov 3, 2008 8:48:11 AM

The name of the game is GET OUT THE VOTE! Are you helping today and tomorrow?

Posted by: Old Dem | Nov 3, 2008 10:48:44 AM