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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Your Morning Read: Pre-Debate ABC/WaPo Prez Poll

Poll
(Click on image for larger version.)

New national polling by ABC News and the Washington Post shows Obama ahead of Clinton now in almost every major category. The new numbers should provide some fodder for tonight's Dem candidate debate in Philadelphia, which will air on ABC at 6:00 PM Mountain time. Tonight's debate is the last chance for the candidates to face off before next Tuesday's Pennsylvania primary.

Complete Poll, Crosstabs. Excerpt:

Obama Surges on Electability, Challenges Clinton on Leadership
Barack Obama has knocked down one of the three tent poles of Hillary Clinton’s campaign for president, surging ahead of her as the candidate Democrats see as most likely to win in November. He’s challenging her on leadership as well, leaving only experience as a clear Clinton advantage in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

On the eve of their debate before the Pennsylvania primary next week, Democrats by a 2-1 margin, 62-31 percent, now see Obama as better able to win in November – a dramatic turn from February, when Clinton held a scant 5-point edge on this measure, and more so from last fall, when she crushed her opponents on electability.

The poll finds other pronounced problems for Clinton. Among all Americans, 58 percent now say she’s not honest and trustworthy, 16 points higher than in a pre-campaign poll two years ago. Obama beats her head-to-head on this attribute by a 23-point margin.

The number of Americans who see Clinton unfavorably overall has risen to a record high in ABC/Post polling, 54 percent -- up 14 points since January. Obama's unfavorable score has reached a new high as well, up 9 points, but to a lower 39 percent.

The ABC/WaPO phone poll was conducted on April 10-13 among a random national sample of 1,197 adults, including 643 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. The results from the full poll have a margin of error of plus or minus 3%; the Democratic sample has an error margin of 4%.

In the national Gallup daily tracking poll, Obama has recently held a steady lead of about 10 points vs. Clinton. The latest numbers show Obama besting Clinton 51% to 40% in the April 12-14 average.

In Pennsylvania, the most recent LA Times/Bloomberg poll, conducted 4/10-14, shows Clinton leading Obama by only 5 points, 46-41% (MoE 4%). Some other polls show a wider margin for Clinton. However, a new Public Policy Polling survey, conducted April 14-15 in Pennsylvania, has Obama edging Clinton 45% to 42%, the third week in a row the poll has showed a statistical tie.

In other words, the 24/7 trash talking by pundits and the Clinton camp about Obama's "bitter" comment doesn't seem to be making much of a dent, if any, in Obama's popularity with voters.

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April 16, 2008 at 02:08 AM in 2008 Presidential Primary | Permalink

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