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Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Great News: Madrid 53% - Wilson 45% in Latest SUSA-KOB-TV Poll

UpIn the lastest Survey USA-KOB-TV poll, Madrid tops Wilson by 8 points:

Democrat Patricia Madrid 53%
Republican Heather Wilson 45%
Undecided 3%

M.O.E. plus or minus 4.6%
Survey taken 10/13-10/15/06
800 adults, including 687 registered voters and 470 likely voters

Here's SUSA's analysis, their pie chart showing the results and the survey's cross-tabs. Some telling points made by SUSA:

  • In the past 4 weeks, the composition of likely voters in NM1 has changed from a 5-point Democrat[ic] advantage to a 16-point Democrat[ic] advantage
  • Madrid leads by 16 points among women. The race is tied among men.
  • Wilson gets 85% of Republican votes. Madrid gets 79% of Democrat[ic] votes.
  • Independents favor Madrid 55% to 42%.

(Editor's Note: In the quote from SUSA analysis above, I changed the word "Democrat" to "Democratic" because that's its proper form when being used as an adjective.) You may recall that the previous poll by SUSA-KOB-TV had Wilson up 51 to 46 over Madrid, so the race swung 13 points in Madrid's favor in this SUSA survey compared with an identical poll they conducted on 9/18-9/20/06.

Although SUSA's automated phone methodology has its critics, their latest results are in line with those of two other recent polls -- by Constituent Dynamics (Madrid 52, Wilson 44) and Zogby-Reuters (Madrid 50, Wilson 40). The latest Albuquerque Journal poll had the race at a dead heat at 44% each. Taken together, poll results in New Mexico's first congressional district show a strong trend towards Madrid as we move closer to election day, something shared by Dems all over the nation in tight congressional races.

Check out local blog New Mexico FBIHOP for some additional analysis of the polling data.

Of course, the only results that really count are those provided by voters in the election. Anything can happen in the last few weeks before an election. RUMORS are that heavy hitters will be traveling to New Mexico to try and affect the outcome, and may include Bill Clinton for Madrid, Rudy Giuliani for Wilson.

If we want to keep the Big Mo moving in Madrid's direction, we have to GET OUT THE VOTE and make sure our fellow Democrats vote absentee (mail-in), early or on election day. Call the Madrid campaign to volunteer for phone banking or canvassing on election day or anytime between now and then:

Main Office
Phone: 505-242-6000
200 Oak St. NE #4
Albuquerque, NM 87106

South Valley Office
Phone: 505-452-2006
1220 Isleta Blvd. SW
Albuquerque, NM 87105

October 17, 2006 at 02:17 PM in Candidates & Races | Permalink


That is great news, let's see how fast Heather's campaign will ratchet up the smear ad's, they must be really feeling the heat now?

Posted by: VP | Oct 17, 2006 3:57:16 PM

I see Wilson has an ad with McCain praising her. I hope people remember McCain kissing Bush's ass during the 04 election. He has lost all of any credibility he one had.

Posted by: JLC | Oct 17, 2006 4:10:15 PM

Please remember that "Democrat" is a noun, not an adjective. I am a Democrat. My party is democratic, or at least a heck of a lot more democratic than the other one! My party is the Democratic Party.

Use of Democrat as an adjective is a slur invented by Newt Gingrich. Please replace "Democrat" in the following paragraph with "Democratic":

In the past 4 weeks, the composition of likely voters in NM1 has changed from a 5-point Democrat advantage to a 16-point Democrat advantage.

Posted by: Don Schiff | Oct 17, 2006 11:33:43 PM

Don: I completely agree with you but that sentence is a direct quote from SUSA's analysis. When text is quoted directly, it isn't proper to change it. But in this case I will do so to support the point you're making. I dislike the incorrect use of the word "Democrat" too. Maybe we should start using "Republic," as in "Republic Party" to counteract this practice, although I like "Repug" or "Rethug" even better!

Posted by: barb | Oct 18, 2006 8:47:55 AM

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