Journal Poll: Udall Leads Pearce 51-36% in Senate Race

The new statewide poll conducted by Research and Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal has Dem Tom Udall with a large lead over Repub Steve Pearce in the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico:

Statewide
Tom Udall 51%
Steve Pearce 36%
Undecided 13%

The results are similar to those in other recent polling -- typically Udall has a double digit lead. For instance, in an October 2 Rasmussen poll, Udall leads Pearce 55% to 41%. And in an October 1 SurveyUSA poll Udall leads Pearce 58% to 39%.

The percentage of undecided voters, however, is higher in this poll than the others. My guess -- and it's purely a guess -- is that many of the undecideds are moderates drawn to Republican candidates but who are turned off by Pearce's hard-right views and relentlessly negative campaigning. Of course, these numbers could also represent low-information voters who still haven't paid much attention to the race. I don't know why similar undecided percentages are not showing up in other polls for this race.

Some things are impossible to decipher from the incomplete results released by the Journal. For instance, here are the numbers for Dems and Repubs, but no breakdowns are provided for the percentage of Repub support for Udall and vice versa, or how many are undecided in these tallies:

Democrats: Udall 78%; Republicans: Pearce 78%.

Other cross-tab data published:

Independents
Udall 54%
Pearce 28%
Undecided 18%

Hispanics
Udall 66%
Pearce 14%
Undecided 19%

Women
Udall 53%
Pearce 32%
Undecided 15%

East Side of NM
Udall 32%
Pearce 60%
Undecided 8%

North-Central NM
Udall 75%
Pearce 15%
Undecided 10%

Albuquerque Metro
Udall 55%
Pearce 31%
14% Undecided

The telephone poll, conducted September 29 thru October 2, 2008, with 659 registered voters statewide who said they are likely to vote on November 4, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 points.

Quotes from Journal article:

Pearce's strong conservative message helped him win the primary — a contest in which hard-core party activists are particularly influential. But Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, president of Albuquerque's Research & Polling Inc., said Pearce's conservative political message has so far not had the same traction in the lead-up to the Nov. 4 general election. "When you look at Republicans who have enjoyed statewide success, they all ran as 'middle-of-the-roaders,' " said Sanderoff, pointing to Domenici and former GOP Govs. Gary Johnson and Garrey Carruthers as examples.

... Pearce has aimed a series of attack ads at Udall that accuse him of being an out-of-touch liberal.

"At this time, it evidently has limited legs — particularly when the mood of the state and nation appears to be leaning Democrat," [Brian] Sanderoff added.

... Democrats outnumber Republicans in New Mexico, and "Steve Pearce is not peeling off enough Democrats — which is typically part of the winning curve for Republicans," Sanderoff said.

... "Steve Pearce is not catching on in Albuquerque," Sanderoff said. "A Republican cannot come out of Albuquerque down by 24 points and expect to win."

Udall had an advantage over Pearce among voters in all age categories and voters with all levels of education, from those with no more than a high school diploma to those with graduate degrees.

See our previous posts on the Journal poll's results for the presidential race and the impact of Sarah Palin on the race.

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