Tuesday, October 30, 2007
(Updated) Chavez for Senate Releases Selective Poll Results
UPDATE 10.31.07: Yesterday, I asked Mayor Chavez about this polling during a conference call initiated by his campaign to reach out to progressive bloggers. He said the poll was done on behalf of Patricia Madrid (who paid for it) when she was considering entering the race. He said his campaign purchased only certain segments of the results, and that they weren't yet in possession of all the data they had purchased. Chavez also reported that Steve Pearce had not announced his entry into the Senate race when the polling was done. The Chavez campaign is considering sharing more of the data when it becomes available.
According to a short post today on Political Wire:
A Lake Reseach (D) poll conducted for the U.S. Senate campaign of Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez (D) showed him narrowly beating Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) in a hypothetical Senate matchup, according to Roll Call. The survey found Chavez edging Wilson, 41% to 40%, with 19% undecided. Key finding for Democrats: "The poll found Chavez leading Wilson among independent voters 48% to 30%."
Celinda Lake of Lake Research is the Chavez campaign's polling consultant (see our previous post), so even these selective data should be taken with a grain of salt. But the real question is why the complete polling results haven't been released. It would be useful, for instance, to examine the methodology and questions used in the survey to determine their fairness. What was the margin of error? How many people were polled? Were they registered voters? What were the party affiliation and other demographics of the samples queried?
I'd also like to know if polling was done on a Chavez run against Steve Pearce, the other Repub candidate in the race who showed better numbers than Wilson in a recent SurveyUSA poll. What were the percentages of Democrats and Republicans who indicated their support for Chavez? If he's beating Wilson so badly among independents and since Republicans make up less than 40% of the electorate, what does this say about how he's doing with Dems?
I think it's less than transparent to release only selective numbers from what appears to be a campaign-funded poll that's already subject to political shading. Mayor Chavez -- how about releasing the complete results so we can see for ourselves what's going on in the race? It's the right thing to do.
I'll be participating in a conference call this afternoon with Mayor Chavez so I'll try to get a question in about releasing the results of the Lake Research poll and report later on what I learn.
You can see our previous posts on the 2008 U.S. Senate race in New Mexico by visiting our archive.
If Mayor Sleazy is pushing polling data I would be very skeptical. At this point in time its probably meaningless anyway.
Posted by: VP | Oct 31, 2007 7:09:28 AM
You would think Chavez would be way out ahead of Wilson with Bush and the Republicans being so low in the polls. It sure looks like his support is low with Democrats which isn't surprising. Chavez is trying to make a splash by leaking this poll and that inaccurate list of his finance committee but it seems to be back firing-not a good start.
Posted by: Buzz | Oct 31, 2007 10:06:10 AM
Let's hope the Washington Dem powers aren't all that impressed. I'm sticking with Don Wiviott for Senate.
Posted by: Old Dem | Oct 31, 2007 11:02:02 AM
So what your saying is that basically it did no good for Mayor Chavez to even try to dialogue with "progressive" bloggers? Because no matter what he says or does or advocates in policy the "progressive" blogs will continue to disagree with him. Even if it means that they are displaying ignorance in their hypocrisy.
Who does State Party Chair Brian Colon support for U.S. Senate? Who does Bernalillo County party Chair Ana Canales support for U.S. Senate?
Who watched the Prez candidate debate last night? Those who did saw Governor Richardson advocating for folks within our party to steer away from personal attacks and to debate the issues. At the Bernalillo County Dem Party Convention earlier this year a resolution was passed that said that Democrats were not to engage in or sponsor tactical negative campaigning against other Democrats and that such tactics would be condemed by County Dem. leadership. Where is our leadership when it comes to personal attacks.
Why is it that our current leadership (local and state) do not issue statements or give general guidelines for campaigning during the Primary season? Its as if they just want it to be swept under the rug. What happened in Taos? What is the official ruling on that? I was in a meeting where I heard the Democrat Executive Director say she witnessed "very racial" motivations? How so? Why do our party leaders keep reminding us with their tired speeches about what they "will" do for the party? Are they still running or running for something else? When will they start doing what they said they "will" do?
My point is this - is our PARTY in a better position as an organization today than it was at the end of March of this year to win in '08? We are still completely divided.
When critical thinking is all said and done it is puzzling. Martin Heinrich is a great candidate. Martin Chavez is a great candidate. Their policies are fairly similar. The major difference is that Chavez has been a Mayor. As an executive it does not permit you to be such a "nice" guy. You have to deal with far too many issues and people. In order to drive legislation you must be aggressive and sometimes a downright ass. What do people say about Guv Richardson? He is a jolly campaigner, but behind closed doors he applies (some may say - inappropriate) pressure, he is vindictive (some say), but all say he gets things done. That is what you want from an executive. It produces results. Heinrich hasn't been in long enough to have had to do very much. I applaud his efforts in changing the municipal minimum wage, we all should because it is a Democrat core value. Thank goodness we had a Democrat Mayor to sign it into law... could you imagine Brad Winter signing it? ... NOT says Borat!
We must steer clear of the Karl Rove type campaigning efforts that drive down voter participation and get back to issue driven campaigning that encourage voter participation (another core Democrat belief). That way we will not just be battling over the same voters that vote every election (20-30%) and we will be able to attract those that are registered and typically shy away from voting (70-80%).
Thank you for your time. Happy Halloween!
Posted by: Westside Voter | Oct 31, 2007 8:19:52 PM
Breaking: Udall Reconsidering U.S. Senate Run
Written by Michael Coleman
Thursday, 01 November 2007
I just got a call from someone very knowledgable about N.M. Democratic politics
who says Rep. Tom Udall's people are calling the party's heavy hitters in the state this morning to inform them he is reconsidering a run for the U.S. Senate.
The source stressed that the congressman has not made an ironclad decision to run but wants people to know he's giving Sen. Pete Domenici's soon-to-be open seat a serious second look.
I hope this is a dream come true- Udall spanks Marty Chavez in the primary and smacks Heather and Pearce in the General Election.
What is a fun position being a member of the powerful appropriations committee in the House - He has control of bringing pork projects to his state or becoming US Senator
Udall is less likely to get seated on the Appropriations committee being a freshman US Senator.
Posted by: Neal Patel | Nov 1, 2007 11:59:53 AM
Westside Voter-I agree with some of what you say but I think it's kinda hypocritical to be complaining about what you call negative campaigning when Chavez has been absolutely horrible in that. He's used dishonest push polling and helped his favored candidates do it too. He's gone to the media and planted outright lies. He's been full of revenge and tries to humiliate people who disagree with him.
Anyone can say they have a position on something during election time. What counts is how a person really operates when they have power. Chavez has operated like a selfish sneaky stubborn bully who pushes things to make him look good and the hell with what the people need. This is why so many have an attitude on him. He earned it.
Posted by: No on Chavez | Nov 1, 2007 1:13:48 PM
Westside Voter: It is absolutely incorrect that if Martin Heinrich were a mayor he'd have the same positions as Marty Chavez! That is ridiculous!
On supporting a decent wage for local workers and protecting sacred sites alone, Marty and Martin have completely different ideologies, and Martin has the true progressive record.
Posted by: Maggie | Nov 1, 2007 4:13:57 PM
Does this mean the Petroglyph National Monument?
Do you consider all of the folks that live on the top of the Mesa west of the Petroglyph park that use either the newly extended Paseo or Universe road to get home/work/school bad people?
Is driving these roads considered to be taboo and should I add it to the list of such activities like shopping at Wal-Mart?
Posted by: Westside Voter | Nov 1, 2007 4:22:58 PM
Insisting on a road through a national monument with sacred connotations was awful but what was worse was the attitude expressed by Chavez and his supporters like you who are very dismissive of anyone who holds spiritual value for the land.
So how's the traffic out there on the West Side? All cleared up because of the road through the Petroglyphs? No, don't think so. Just wait until Marty's pals develop all that land beyond there as well as the filthy Westland Corp's new "Sun Cal" boondoggle. You ain't seen gridlock like what's coming yet.
Shop at Walmart? Never. I try to avoid buying consumer goods made in sweat shops and worse in third world countries sold by a retailer that has fought labor unions tooth and nail. I'm a Democrat. We don't do that.
Posted by: JJ | Nov 1, 2007 4:47:10 PM
Nope traffic is still heavy, but mostly due to recent anti-development laws like the Planned err No-Growth Strategy... so now we have pieces of roads built in front of newly developed lots connecting to temporary roads and dirt roads. Our representation out here seems to like to punish his constituents rather than help them.
What we need is some ordinances that would clean-up those eastside neighborhoods that use toilets as planters and collect junk in their front yards and call it art...
Once again I must ask the very simple yes/no question: Do progressives consider all of the folks that live on the top of the Mesa west of the Petroglyph park that use either the newly extended Paseo or Universe road to get home/work/school bad people?
Posted by: Westside Voter | Nov 1, 2007 7:20:41 PM
Actually not enough artery streets were ever planned out there because that would take too much "developable land" away from the sprawl creators.
As for toilets, what the hell are you talking about?
I just feel sorry for the people who live West of the Petroglyphs because they were the ones sold a bill of goods. The traffic and gridlock will only increase and it's sad they were lured into moving there with the badly built houses sold for "cheap". Not really cheap when you know from construction people how they'll be falling down in not too many years. But they're big like Marty's ego.
Posted by: JJ | Nov 1, 2007 10:46:18 PM
Westside: the better word for me is "empathy"...that's what i feel for people stuck in gridlock on the westside. but it's a false dichotomy to suggest that a road through the national monument is a solution to those problems. there were other solutions proposed and not taken. the paseo extension isn't just about the folks out there today. it's a major linkage in a regional transportation route primarily designed to support the development of the future...what many of us call "sprawl." and despite what you may think, those of us who opposed that road also have much to say about how to improve the quality of life on the west side.
Old Dem: there are many of us who are registered Democrats solely to vote in the primaries. i really despise the two party system, but it's what exists so i have to deal with it. i have great friends who invest a lot of time in the democratic party and i admire them for their commitment. and i myself will work on campaigns from time to time. but i really don't care how the party brass directs it's faithful to behave. i guess my point is that you should draw distinctions between true party believers, and those on the left who acknowledge that democrats in office are a lot better than republicans. for people like me, registering as a democrat is all about having my voice heard when it comes to who gets elected in the primary. for this reason, you can expect someone like me to point out the major distinction between Chavez and his opponent, perhaps Udall, when it comes to their values, which can be seen historically through their respective actions.
Posted by: marjorie | Nov 2, 2007 12:10:48 AM
i believe major chavez is taking credit for the smart growth policy you are ridiculing.
Posted by: no water | Nov 2, 2007 11:53:33 AM
“it's sad they were lured into moving there with the badly built houses sold for ‘cheap’”
Lured?! Cheap?! Sorry, but that statement is an insult to anyone who has purchased and made their home on Albuquerque’s Westside. I wonder what the neighborhood associations will have to say about that statement.
“there were other solutions proposed and not taken”
Like what, hot air balloon from Ventana Ranch to Coors and Montano and then drive to work/school/home.??? C’mon get real. Universe doesn’t touch the Petroglyph Monument. As a matter of fact its access has actually boosted the attendance of annual visitors to the park. Eventually it will be a nice four laner! So will the extended side of Paseo! So will McMahon. So will Lyon. So will Irving. So will Paseo Del Volcan. Geez, do we have representation on our side of town… oh that’s right just that Mayor guy.
“development of the future...what many of us call ‘sprawl.’”
Thank you. Finally you said it in plain English. No spin. All of you oppose everything new. No matter what. You give it an unattractive name like “sprawl”. For those of us who have lived here all our life we want growth. We have been waiting our entire life for Albuquerque to become a HOT city so that we can enjoy what other big cities enjoy… opportunity, higher quality of life, and entertainment. That’s right, the Westside isn’t new just treated as if it were.
“there are many of us who are registered Democrats solely to vote in the primaries. i really despise the two party system”
“Shop at Walmart? Never… I'm a Democrat. We don't do that.”
Again, you guys said it. Most of you are folks that should really be registered as Independents or something else. Your real focus isn’t on the party, its your personal beliefs. That’s why you guys have no regard or respect for party leadership and do not mind doing or saying nasty things to advance your candidates/ideologies. That is fine. It’s a free country. However it is unethical to register as a Democrat, get elected to be an officer of the party and be motivated to vote or participate in party activities with an intention of not doing what is right for the party, but to actually work to disable it. I guess you learned that in Political Science Class 101 held at the campus of Soltari, Inc. Now you can advance to 202 How To Become A Candidate.
So shopping at Wal-Mart disqualifies a person from being a Democrat. Okay. Now I know for sure that you guys are disconnected and I also know now why you guys will never be more than 25% of the registered electorate. I am a Democrat Ward Chair and a fourth generation Democrat that has been apart of many, many campaigns. The absolute best voter registration drive that I have ever been apart of was right in front of the Wal-Mart by Cottonwood. We only registered a hand full of (R)’s and hundreds of (D)’s. Single moms, families, people new to the area and a ton of folks that fled the eastside to the Westside, but hadn’t been able to change their registration since they moved. You should focus your intelligence on economics that drive folks to the stores that they choose to shop. A store like Wal-Mart is less expensive and convenient. Everyday folks are too damn busy to worry about all the social injustices that the corporation of Wal-Mart may sponsor. However if we were to change the economy so that people were a bit less worried about the $1.25 difference between a gallon of milk at one grocery store to the next … that is effective policy.
I mean just think about how many folks you just alienated. Everyone on the Westside that choose to make a home – not lured there. Then, everyone that shops at Wal-Marts. C’mon get real!
And if Barb posts them, I will go and take pics of the houses in Nob Hill with all of the crap in the front yard to include toilets as planters! HA.
Posted by: Westside Voter | Nov 2, 2007 2:55:43 PM
I have to add to this discussion.
Sprawl development is not progress, advancement or anything else positive. It's the most lazy, selfish path to take by developers with no ethics. Go look at "hot cities" sometime. They aren't about sprawl development- they're about innovative design and good planning so the city looks good and people can get around easily. The west side is a monument to no planning. It looks something a cowtown would create, which is what it is- the product of a cowtown mentality.
I understand why people are often forced to shop at Walmart but I don't believe real Democrats should be proud of that and promoting it instead of pushing for change so we aren't living at the expense of dying children and women in the third world in sweat shops. Walmart is run by union breakers. If you aren't for unions you aren't a real Democrat. Everyone knows that.
I think it's very sad you are bragging about more roads and wider roads. You must not care what happens in the world your children and grandchildren live in. I think it's very sad you think unplanned and unregulated growth is a good thing when it will make us run out of water even sooner. Global warming, water shortages, bad air, I guess this is what you want so you and your friends can make money by selling off land your ancestors saved for you. I think that's awful.
I hate to tell you but progressives ARE the party leadership, not Marty's crowd.
How much money are you making off the sprawl Mr. Westside Voter?
Posted by: SCC member | Nov 2, 2007 3:41:44 PM
The equity in my home... that is what I am making off of the westside development. Once again, you call it sprawl. We don't.
I am well traveled. Thank you. I am currently in Tulsa until Sunday and will next be in Mt. Pleasant, MI from Monday to Wednesday. I travel for work extensively and do visit all of the hot cities. That is why I have an even better first hand knowledge of the initiatives that could be brought and have been brought to the Q, but some folks fight it.
As far as the comments about me being a bad father and potentially bad grandfather proves the point that you guys have no fear of disrespecting individuals personally and I find those comments immature. My children are going to be great citizens and they are completely off limits. You are only brave enough to make these comments because you don't post your real name.
Thats too bad you stooped to that. I WAS advocating for Councilor Heinrich in CD1, and with my help he would have won with 81% of the vote thus ensuring no Primary Election opponent. However, his supporters have turned me off so bad that I will form a coalition to ensure that his strongest opponent will have the necessary votes to get onto the ballot...
Posted by: Westside Voter | Nov 2, 2007 5:17:00 PM
dear west side voter....
your equity is in danger!
I have two words for you, please listen, without anger and judgement.
Posted by: no water | Nov 2, 2007 6:35:00 PM
I've registered folks plenty in front of Walmart. If voter registration was the primary political task we needed in order to get progressives elected in this country I'd be at the Walmart every freaking day. Your attitude about who should be registered as a Democrat or not is one of the big problems with the two party system, which can not hope to absorb all the perspectives in this country. If the Democrats were truly interested in real democracy, they would have challenged the structure of the electoral system in light of Gore's failure in 2000 but instead the party rolled over because to do so would have potentially lessened their long term power. As for whether or not I have a right to be registered as a Democrat...please. I vote straight ticket 99% of the time, whereas a hell of a lot of registered Dem's couldn't tell you a thing about the platform and in reality vote based on how "presidential" the candidate seems, or some other such nonsense. I don't need the "party leadership" to instruct me on how to behave or what to think. And I certainly have every right to register and support progressive candidates given that *my only option* in most elections is the Democrat.
Posted by: marjorie | Nov 3, 2007 8:26:53 AM
Wow there are so many words of venom on both sides of this matter that all I can say is "Who needs Republicans?". We do fine kicking eachother around. What about this, whoever each of us supports in the primary I want all of us to get behind whoever the candidate is and win.
Posted by: Sick of this attack on hispanic candidates! | Nov 5, 2007 11:09:46 PM
Dont try and scare us into voting for Marty. We know his record. You may wish to overlook his policys, but I will not. I will vote for anybody but Marty. BTW, its called discusion. Thats what america is about. Its good to get all this info out to the people.
Posted by: George | Nov 6, 2007 9:40:49 AM
George, I have not yet heard any topical discussion regarding any of the Mayor's policies. All I have seen is comments on his personal business and personality. Ooooh here come the red light camera foes! ha.
Posted by: Westside Voter | Nov 6, 2007 12:04:19 PM
Lets look at the red light scam. I have studied law and what they have done is very illigal. I dont live in the big city so i am not worried about red light cameras.
The company that put them up gets a kick back from them. They have been declared illigal in many states. When someone here finally challenges them, Marty will lose that one also. Lets take the fight that was to be put on by the city firefigters, what was it called, Rumble in Rio or somethning like that. Marty lost that one, because someone had the guts to stand up to him.
what about his PAC, that was on the news all over.
He crossed a pickett line back east, that was in the news, his wife refused to cross. For a person who claims to be a Cesar Chaves suporter, he shouldve known better than to cross a pickitt line.
What about the poor pay the city workers get? They are paid poverty wages.
His republican directors get paid very well.
What about his seizing of cars for DWI, without due process. What if I let my buddy use my car to go to the store and he uses the car for DWI, thats not my fault. I have to work for a living. I could not sustain a loss like that.
I tend to think of his policys as Faschism. The nazi party liked big business and passed laws restricting personal freedom.
Maybe he is the new face of faschism. Hold down the poor while uplifting the rich. Wait a minute, I just described the Republican Party.
Posted by: george | Nov 8, 2007 4:26:10 PM