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Friday, October 01, 2010

New Rasmussen Poll on NM Guv Race: Martinez 50% - Denish 40%

Rasmussen Reports just released results of an automated phone survey conducted on September 29 that show Democrat Denish at 40% and Republican Susana Martinez at 50% in the New Mexico governor's race, with 6% undecided and 4% for some other unnamed candidate. The polling firm has the race at 51% Martinez and 41% Denish if "leaners" are included, with 5% undecided and 3% for someone else. You can see the questions here.

Rasmussen has now moved this race from its Toss-Up category to Leans Republican. Last month, they had the race at 48% for Martinez and 43% for Denish, and 51% to 44% if leaners were counted.

Chris Cervini of the Diane Denish campaign released this statement to me in response to the poll:

Polls will go up and down, but we really don’t put a whole lot of stock in Republican pollsters like Rasmussen. Diane is continuing to criss-cross New Mexico talking to voters in their communities about the issues that are truly important to them -- their jobs, their economic security and their ability to provide for their kids -- while Susana Martinez continues to push her right-wing agenda of rolling back accountability measures that protect New Mexicans from big corporations and powerful interests.

Rasmussen is generally seen as a Republican polling outfit, and there are questionable aspects to their methodology. 

So what does it all mean? This was one snapshot in time using a particular methodology and weighting system. Surely we have our work cut out for us in what is generally seen as an incredibly close race that will be neck and neck at the finish line. As always, the race will be won or lost on the strength of our voter outreach and GOTV efforts. Get involved!

The most recent poll shows a total of 75% of those surveyed as "certain" of their votes, with 14% not yet certain and 10% without an initial preference.

Additional data from the cross tabs based from the "with leaners" results:

Favorability:

Martinez
Very favorable 35%
Somewhat favorable 25%
Somewhat unfavorable 13%
Very unfavorable 25%
Not sure 2%

Denish
Very favorable 21%
Somwhat favorable 27%
Somwhat unfavorable 22%
Very unfavorable 27%
Not Sure 3%

Martinez is ahead with men 55% to 38% and women 47% to 43%. Denish leads with voters 18-29 years of age 55-26%, but Martinez is up with all the other age groups. The results are closest in the 50-64 age group, but Martinez is still ahead 48-43%.

Martinez is ahead with white voters 56-39% and with voters of "other" ethnic groups 47-42%. Denish leads with black voters 77-23%. There is no category for Hispanic, Native American or Asian -- just "other," so they are lumped together in that category.

Martinez got the nod from 90% of Republicans, 25% of Democrats and 52% of others (independents or decline to declare). Denish garnered 7% of Republicans, 62% of Democrats and 42% of others.

Denish received support from 16% of those calling themselves conservatives, 50% of moderates, 73% of liberals and 53% of those unsure of how to categorize themselves. Martinez got the support of 78% of conservatives, 37% of moderates, 23% of liberals and 42% of those unsure of their political orientations.

Twenty percent (20%) of all voters in New Mexico say they are part of the Tea Party movement. Sixty-six percent (66%) are not, but 14% aren't sure. This is a higher level of participation than is found nationwide.

Ninety-four percent (94%) of Tea Party members and 35% of non-members support Martinez. Denish earns 56% support from those who say they are not part of the movement. Forty-five percent (45%) of the state's voters say the Tea Party movement is good for America. Thirty-three percent (33%) say it's bad for the country.

Rasmussen conducted the survey of 750 likely voters and it has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

If you sign up today for a free trial subscription to Rasmussen, you can see the crosstabs too.

Ironically, I was one of those who received a call for this survey, which included questions about the NM-01 congressional race. Results on that question have not yet been released.

October 1, 2010 at 01:53 PM in 2010 NM Governor's Race, Diane Denish, Polling, Susana Martinez | Permalink

Comments

I bet the actual internal R pollsters have this race much closer. Ras is just PR device the Faux media uses to create an impression that the 'thugs are more popular than they really are.

A previous poll (PPP) had Martinez pulling 50% of the Hispanic vote. If that happens, Diane is sunk regardless. I just don't see anywhere near that proportion voting for Tejana Suanana.

I'm worried, sure, but I'm not buying what the Rassies are selling. This is not a 10 point race. I

Posted by: Proud Democrat | Oct 2, 2010 10:40:44 AM

Proud - Tic Toc... just a few more hours till Journal poll comes out and confirms. If I were you, I'd be worried.

Posted by: BGar | Oct 2, 2010 8:27:43 PM

The only worry anyone in NM should have is for letting the horrible Susana from Texas owned by Texas money to get the keys to the gov. office. If she does we will have ruin all over the state. Think of a gov. who thinks its ok to have companies dirty our water and land without having to follow any rules!

Posted by: Carlos | Oct 3, 2010 12:55:57 PM

Thank God! This is great news. Diane is the wrong person for the job. Keep up the negitive ads Diane they work!! hahaha

Posted by: Northern Dem | Oct 3, 2010 6:38:37 PM

I don't think Susana the Tejana has run even one positive ad because she has nothing to say except throw everyone in jail and cut everything that helps ordinary people.

Posted by: Kathy | Oct 4, 2010 8:31:35 AM