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Wednesday, September 03, 2008

NM-01: Roll Call's SurveyUSA Poll Has Heinrich Leading White 51-46%

Heinrichblair_4Good news is breaking out all over for Dems at this point in the 2008 election cycle, including New Mexico's First Congressional District. A poll conducted by SurveyUSA for Roll Call shows Dem Martin Heinrich leading Repub Darren White by a margin of 51-46%. The poll of 631 likely voters was conducted August 26-28 and has a 4-point margin of error. As Roll Call reports:

To House Democrats, New Mexico’s 1st district has been like Moby Dick to Ahab. Democrats have spent 40 years trying to wrest the Albuquerque-based seat — a perpetual swing district on the presidential level — from the Republicans’ hands.

But a new poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call suggests that 2008 may finally be the Democrats’ year.

The article admits the race is no "slam dunk" for Dems, but points out that results of the same poll regarding the presidential race in NM-01 may mean that Heinrich will get an additional boost from an Obama victory in the District. Presidential coattails can be mighty:

But White and Republicans have one apparent political trend to worry about: According to the poll, the 1st district is no longer a swing district in the White House election.

In 2004, Sen. John Kerry (Mass.), the Democratic presidential nominee, carried the district by just 3 points. In 2000, former Vice President Al Gore won by 1 point. But in the Roll Call poll, Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) led presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), 55 percent to 41 percent.

This suggests that White, who is better known than Heinrich, is running against a Democratic headwind in the Land of Enchantment. And if Obama is so far ahead in the 1st district, his chances of carrying New Mexico in November are excellent, because the state’s 3rd district is a Democratic stronghold, and the 2nd district almost always goes Republican in White House elections.

And get this:

To hold this district, Republicans will try to paint Heinrich as an out of touch liberal. But in the poll he was leading among self-described moderates and among Independents.
The Roll Call article also analyzes the poor favorable-unfavorable numbers for Heather Wilson and John McCain in the poll and how that also favors Heinrich. Things are definitely looking up in the First District -- so now's the time to rachet up the action. Donate what you can afford in terms of money and time to the Heinrich campaign.

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September 3, 2008 at 01:42 AM in 2008 General Presidential Election, NM-01 Congressional Seat 2008 | Permalink


The poll numbers on Monahan's site paint a different picture.

Posted by: qofdisks | Sep 3, 2008 4:24:40 PM

Yeah they would. Monahan is a sleazy mouthpiece for all things status quo. He keeps insisting Heinrich is the underdog but gives no reason other than White's name recognition. I recognize White's name because he's named in two lawsuits accusing him of violating the constitution and he ran Bush's campaign in NM last time. That should win him many votes from sane people. Not.

Posted by: roadrunner | Sep 3, 2008 5:15:55 PM

Only old hacks pay attention to Monahan now. The geezer has been unmasked and its bad news.

Love the poll numbers. We have to keep up the pressure though.

Posted by: Bob P. | Sep 3, 2008 5:58:58 PM

Monahan is a Rethuglican troll.

Posted by: Proud Democrat | Sep 3, 2008 10:15:14 PM

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